Kurtosis risk occurs when a statistical model and observation of that model focus on ‘bookend’ extremes and fail to take into account what the bookends are used for (to hold the books in place).
It seems to me that any disaster risk reduction plan should look at 4 distinct considerations:
(D)esign: Are the plans in design with the probability of the event? (planning for snow storms in Death Valley).
(E)valuation: Are all factors that could alter the event taken into consideration? (after the snow storm in Death Valley will there be a danger of an avalanche).
(E)nvironment: Are logistical considerations based on accurate information? (should we ship sand to Death Valley for sandbags in case there is a flood after the snow melts).
(P)olicy: Are the plans put in place commensurate with the level of risk? (how much money should we put into the ‘Death Valley snow storm and avalanche mitigation plan’).
Bookends dictate that all of the above considerations need to be taken into account…but not in Death Valley.
If such a plan were to exist the amount of time, effort and money put into it should not be deep-but very shallow.
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